The
Importance of Decisions…
Do you remember the Sixties? If you so, you may recognize the lyrics from the
Lovin Spoonful, “Did you ever have to make up your mind. Pick up on one and
leave the other behind. It's not often easy and not often kind. Did you ever have
to make up your mind?.... And then you bet you’d better finally decide”
How many of your correct decisions, made during a casino session, go
unnoticed? It is only after a wrong move that we catch ourselves saying, “Why
did I decide to do that? What was I thinking?”
In a game of Texas Hold’em,
making the wrong decision can cost you all of your chips. If you have any
familiarity with the game, you know that there is a laundry list for decision
making. It is critical that all of the decisions are made in the proper order.
But, before that, the player must take into account the type of game they are
playing. This is because Texas Hold’em playing styles will vary depending on the
game. A No Limit Texas Hold’em tournament is not played in the same style as a
No Limit Texas Hold’em cash game and Limit Texas Hold’em is not played like No
Limit Hold’em. Here are a few of the general considerations for decision making
in Texas Hold’em:
- Your playing position.
- Your starting hand.
- If you bet first, how
much do you bet to get players to call?
- If you bet first, how
much do you bet to get players to fold?
- Faced with calling a
bet, what is the amount of the bet you must call?
- If you decide to call a
bet, will you call a raise?
- If you decide to raise,
will you call a re-raise?
- Your chip stack in
relation to your opponents and the required bet.
- Who made a bet or raise
before you and their position.
- The number of players in
the hand.
- The number of players
yet to decide to play.
- The characteristics of
the players at the table.
- Your odds for winning
your hand.
- The pot odds.
- And one that I feel is
over looked, “Do I really need to win this hand?”
Table games like craps,
blackjack and roulette appear simpler in comparison. The player makes a bet and
in a few moments the result of their guess is realized. However, decision making
for a table game is just as important as when playing Texas Hold’em. Although
the table game decisions are quite different, and most are not as complicated as
the ones in poker, making the wrong decision still can cost you all of your
chips.
First, let’s take roulette
for an example. I never lose to the roulette wheel. I only have one quick and
simple decision! Since I am not a fan of roulette, a slow game with a 6% house
advantage, my decision is not to play!
On to blackjack! In
blackjack, there are about 540 different hands making for about 540 decisions.
Decision making in blackjack is not that overwhelming, however. In fact, it is
like following a recipe from a cook book. All decisions in blackjack start with
your two cards and the dealer’s up card. Since blackjack is not a team game, how
the other players will play is of no concern. There will be exceptions in
critical situations and you should be an expert card counter to employ the
correct decision.
Your first decision playing
blackjack answers, are you “ahead or behind” the dealer? Do you have to improve
your hand or are you content with your two cards. Holding pat with your two
cards means that you are done for that hand and you do not need to make any more
decisions. If your decision is to improve the hand, the decisions follow a
logical hierarchy, somewhat like a dichotomous key. You decisions are
methodical, step one, step two, and step three. Let me interject here, some of
your decisions will be defensive. You must understand that when playing
blackjack, you are not always playing to win. Sometimes you will have to make a
decision with a hand to protect against a loss. Spitting eights or aces would be
an example. It is a defensive play to hedge your original bet… win one, lose
one, push. This decision has to do with protecting the bankroll.
If your decision is to
improve your hand, there are three considerations and all are answered with yes
or no.
- Do you have pairs to
split, yes or no? If yes, then split the hand and refer back to this question
after splitting. If no, then move on to question two.
- Do you have a double
down, yes or no? If yes, then double your bet and tell the dealer “double”. If
no, then move on to question three.
- Do you have a hit
decision, yes or no? If yes, then draw a card and refer back to this question.
If no, wave your hand to the deal or push your cards under your bet to
indicate “stand”, ending your play.
The choices are in reverse
order of probability, but very logical. If you have pairs, do you have pairs to
split against the dealer’s up card? Yes or No! If you have a possible double
down, do you have a double down against the dealer’s up card? Yes or No! If you
do not have pairs to split or a viable double down, then the only decisions left
are to hit, draw a card or to stand pat. After drawing a card, you may still
have a decision to draw another card or stand.
The purpose for splitting
pairs is to draw a double down hand. It is an aggressive play and very
advantageous to the savvy blackjack player. Take note, when playing blackjack,
if this rule is not allowed at your favorite casino, they are taking away
players’ advantage. In many games now, pair splitting is limited to splitting
pairs once and no double down allowed. With this rule change, there is no point
in playing such a restricted game in my opinion. It is your decision.
Craps, with is macho image
of “belly up with the money”, appears to be fast and frenzied, and players may
think there is little in the way decision making, except to pick a number and
toss out some chips. Unlike the decision hierarchy of blackjack, craps is a game
requiring the player to be “switched on” all the time with their betting
choices. In simple terms, if it is a cold table, point and out, playing $160
across, and $5 on all the hardways, would probably be a very poor decision. I
often compare playing craps to investing in the stock market. If a company shows
potential it could be a good decision to invest. A craps game has to show
potential in order for me to invest. Each bet is an investment. If the game is
not producing long paying hands, the decision to continue to invest with Come
Bets, Place Bets and unmentionable Prop Bets, will only separate the player from
their money more quickly. You decide to either switch to the Don’t side or to
stop playing all together.
Decision making at the
craps table is layered with questions; “Is there reason to invest in this game”,
“Is there support for this play?” “Is my betting strategy appropriate for the
game setting?” In short, you must check-in with your questions constantly
regarding what you see and what you have seen in support of your decision making
process. Making correct decisions takes a little time. Never hurry a decision.
If you don’t know… don’t go!
No matter what game you
chose to play, the two most import decisions, of course, are deciding to play or
not play and then deciding when to leave, if you do play. These two decisions
may be the hardest for the player, because of emotions, the desire to play, and
the excitement of being in a casino. With all the necessary decisions combined,
they tend to override good judgment for decision making. “.... And then you bet
you’d better finally decide.”
Well, that’s it for this edition of the Playing 4 Keeps™ Newsletter.
See you at the tables,
Michael Vernon
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