Setting for the Don’t
When it comes to
gambling, there is no sure system of course. The rules of the games are designed
to always favor the operators of the game. Be it a game of blackjack, craps,
roulette, baccarat or any of the other now popular table games, either way you
play, odds are against you to win. With that understood, I want to address
playing the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come using dice manipulation.
Before launching
into the concept of dice setting and playing the Don’t Pass, a bit of
clarification is due. Playing the Don’t Pass is often misrepresented as playing
with the “House”. Even in Baccarat when the bettor’s choice is either the Player
or the Banker, the odds never allow the bettor the same advantage as the casino.
Playing the Don’t Pass in a craps game is not playing with the “House”. The
casino has an advantage over this bet close to the same percent as a Pass Line
bet. The odds favoring the casino for the Don’t Pass bet are always argued by
some, just like religion and politics. It is boring really. The main thing to
understand is either way you bet, the odds of you losing are close enough so as
to assure that the lights in the casino will keep brightly lit. For the record,
the advantage over the Pass Line bet to is 1.41% and for the Don’t Pass bet it
is 1.36%. See for yourself
http://wizardofodds.com/craps
I feel the
attraction of playing the Pass Line betting has over the Don’t Pass line has to
do with a lack of patience mostly. Following that of course would be the
necessity of a player being on the edge, engaged in the game for every
roll…“Action Jackson”. Playing the Don’t is a grind play winning once, usually,
per shooter. While on the Pass Line, a player can be like a kid in a candy
store, picking several ways to bet. The problem with the Pass Line and having
multiple bets is our friend, the seven. Probability predicts a seven will result
in a hand once in every six rolls. That is for random rolls.
What about the
players who have made a commitment to develop the skill of dice setting? Can
they puck the desired numbers from the dice with their skill to set and toss the
dice? Can we use dice setting, dice manipulation and what we know of skewing
random results when playing the Don’t Pass? Sure! Why not?
Above all, the
short coming of this concept is that the player has to be the shooter. Having to
be the shooter, the player must be confident with their skill with the art of
dice manipulation. This means the shooter has to be able to recognize how their
dice are reacting and make any necessary modifications. This statement goes to
the extreme of dice manipulation and although there is a large population of
dice setters playing the game, few really understand the finer points of the
skill required to adjust sets and the toss in order to keep the dice out of
probability. Last, in order to not become bored with the waiting game, the
player has to position themselves in a game with very few players. The ideal
situation would be an empty table.
Let’s get to it.
What does the game look like for the dice manipulator? The short scenario would
be to shoot live craps on the come out on a roll. Following that would be to
come out on 4 or 10, and then seven out on the second roll. That’s it!
Shooting for live
craps the set to use is cross sixes, left die axis 4/3 and right die axis 2/5.
When set, you would have cross 6/6 on top, looking at 2/3 toward you and 5/4 on
the front faces. Assuming the dice stay on axis; you are only exposed to two
sevens, 1/6 and 6/1. The remaining fourteen combinations are 6/6, 1/1, 2/3, 5/4,
6/3, 2/1, 5/6, 1/4, 2/4, 5/3, 6/4, 2/6, 5/1, 1/3. However, the possible
resulting outcomes are not as good as one might think.
On the come out
roll 6/6 is a push for the Don’t Pass. Only the 2 craps and 3 craps are live
craps rolls on the come out for a Don’t Pass bet. Since 5/6, Yo-11 opposes the
craps number 3, and the eleven being a live roll for the Don’t Pass to lose, it
cancels the craps roll of 3 providing no advantage. Pushing the 12 craps and
canceling the 3 craps, we are left with a one in 36 shot (1/1) using this set
effectively for a natural winner on the come out playing the Don’t Pass. Don’t
forget our friend “the seven” and with two of them (1/6, 6/1) verses (1/1),
well, you can easily see how the casino manages to keep their edge.
The majority of
wins for the Pass Line result from natural winners on the Come Out roll 7 or 11.
Once a point is establish, the odds go to about 60% against the point to repeat.
In plain language, when playing the Don’t Pass, your advantage is established
once you are against an established point. Once behind a point, any Don’t Pass
or Don’t Come bet is the odds on favorite to win.
Examine now the
second part of our scenario. Let’s try to set a point of 4 or 10 or at least
outside numbers with 5 and 9. The set to use on the Come Out roll is the 2-V
with fours and tens all around. Using this set and assuming the dice stay on
axis, you have two sevens to contend with, 5/2 and 2/5. The rest of the fourteen
numbers are 2-fours, 2-tens, 2-eights, 2-sixes, 2-nines, 2-fives, 1-three, 1-Yo
Eleven.
With the 2-V set,
you have 12 out 16 combinations which can result in a box number. Of the twelve
numbers, eight are outside numbers. Assuming your dice stay on axis and assuming
you miss the sevens and the Yo eleven, your resulting roll will either be a
winner ace/duce, 3 craps, or you will be behind a box number and favored to win.
Behind the 4 or 10
you odds of winning are 2:1. Behind the 5 or 9 your odds of winning are 3:2.
Behind the 6 or 8 your odds of winning are 6:5.
Okay, we are
finally behind a box number with a point established. The next step is to set
for sevens and knock down the number with a seven-out. The seven set to use
would depend on the point.
If the point is a 4
or 10, use a sevens set with 5/2 - 5/2axis.
If the point is a 5
or 9, use a sevens set with 4/3 - 4/3 axis.
If the point is 6
or 8, use a sevens set use either of the above sets for sevens.
This is theoretical
and doable depending on the shooter’s skill tossing on axis dice. In addition,
the shooter must recognize how the dice are reacting and make modifications to
the set and or the toss accordingly.
I am not going into
betting strategies here. My purpose was to address a subscriber’s question about
how setting dice and shooting from the Don’t could be a strategy. In short, you
can play flat or lay odds and of course add a progression when you win or a
modified Martingale when you lose. It really depends on the player’s bankroll
and their tolerance to risk.
It is easier to
find a cold losing table to bet the Don’t than a “working table” to bet the Pass
Line. If a player is confident in their skill level with manipulating dice
consistently, then shooting from the Don’t could produce consistent results. For
the most part, as a Don’t Pass bettor, recognize that the game will not last
long. Your objective should be to accept modest wins. It is imperative that when
shooting from the Don’t that you do not fall victim of your own cleverness. This
is a game of chance and anything can and will happen. Caution is advised when
shooting from the Don’t that you are alert for the unexpected, catching a hand
and falling on your own sword.
On the Coat Tales of a Gambler - Episode 24 Part I
Sailor continues
with his stories and the gambler Scarpone
Home
for the Holidays...
My traveling for
the year (2008) ended with me back in Greenville. (Alabama) It’s always good to have a
visit with family and old friends. While I was there, I snooped around, trying
to dig up any leads on Scarpone or illegal gamble. Although I am sure that there
is still some kind of gambling going on back home, I was unable to unearth any
confirmation to the fact. All the o’l guys that I use to know back in those days
are gone. Either they have moved away or moved on to a hotter game… ha ha. I did
try to find out some old stories, but I had to be careful with whom I spoke to
and what I asked. I came up empty again for any new stories of Scarpone. But
here is something I recalled while I was there this Christmas.
In my days growing
up in Greenville, the holidays were a busy time for gamblers. Seems like the
“gambler” in folks surfaces during the time between Thanksgiving and New Year’s.
I guess everyone was in the giving spirit. It reminded me of the time Scarpone
almost went to work for the Atlanta mob. First, let me give you a little
background.
The end of the year
always brought on more gambling. There was always the usual card and dice games
at the old farm house out of town, and the backroom games held at the
roadhouses. But during the holidays, there were a lot of home games in
conjunction with the Christmas parties. Every weekend after Thanksgiving through
New Year’s Eve, someone in Greenville would be hosting a party that would always
break out into some sort of gambling game. These games would range from penny
anti, just for fun, to some with more serious money. For the most part, Scarpone
kept to the dens of iniquity for his gambling and if he did appear at a holiday
party, he never entered a game, cloaking his true identity. There was no need to
expose his gambler’s persona to the wholesome citizens of Greenville. For all
they knew, John Roybal was a traveling insurance and investment broker.
The holidays are a
wonderful memory for me. It was a time when folks gathered and celebrated with
an abundance of delicious food and of course bootleg whiskey. The parties all
pretty much followed a similar format. The women would eventually congregate in
the living room and kitchen while the men migrated to a back room, garage or
barn for the gambling, smoking and drinking. It was a grand time to be a kid
growing up in the south. Folks were generous, and the spirit of the season
celebrated like nothing you see today. Post war in the fifties was a romantic
time in America and it is held only in the memories of those of us around at the
time to experience it. I am pretty sure it can never be repeated.
After all the
holiday gambling in the joints in Greenville, Scarpone knew that it was good
business to give the Greenville mugs a break and drink from other wells. As I
recall, it was shortly after the New Year. Scarpone came to see me about driving
him to Georgia to a cockfight near Atlanta. Scarpone invited an old buddy, Vic
De Voss. I was working as a fireman at the time and could finagle a couple of
extra days off. That was the beauty of the job. I worked four days on with three
days off. There was always someone willing to pick up extra work or cover a
shift or two for a buddy. This was true especially during hunting season.
Scarpone wanted to be out of town for a week. Of course he covered my wages for
the time off plus all the expenses.
The expenses on
this particular trip included a stay in Phenix City, Alabama. Phenix City is
just across the Chattahoochee River from Columbus, Georgia. Fort Benning
Army base is located in Columbus. With a concentration of men with money and not
much else to do, Phenix City had a fair share of pleasure houses tucked away for
the boys on leave. Scarpone use to plan his gambling trips to Columbus to
coincide with payday on the base. However, on this trip to Phenix City, gambling
was not the motivation.
Scarpone was a
womanizer. I have told you the stories of his passion for young women and all
his young wives. Vic De Voss wanted to go whoring in Phenix City. Vic was a
contractor from Montgomery. He and Scarpone had known one another for several
years going back to the end of the war. Vic’s nickname was “The Boss”. Story
goes that after the war, Scarpone gave Vic the money for his construction
business. Instead of paying back Scarpone for the loan, Vic worked out a profit
sharing deal for Scarpone to have a piece of Vic’s business.
I never did know
what Scarpone’s net worth was, but he was never short of cash. It was not
unusual for Scarpone to have twenty to thirty thousand in cash with him. In those
days, that kind of money could buy a house and new car and still have a chunk
left over. Scarpone had little to no interest in whore houses. It was not
his thing. He was impulsive though. Hell, he kept five one hundred dollar bills in his suit coat vest
pocket just for any pretty girl that he wanted to meet. A hundred bucks to
pretty girl in those days was understood, especially the ones that hung out
around the gambling. Scarpone was just honoring his buddy by agreeing to a night
in Phenix City. I think I was between marriages at the time.
We left Greenville
in the morning and drove to Montgomery by noon. We picked up Vic at his office.
Vic’s office was in one of the downtown office buildings that his company built.
We were invited into a posh suite with a huge walnut desk centered in front of full
length windows with a view of the city. Large leather armchairs adorned the
front side of the desk where Vic directed us to sit and have a drink before
going to lunch. Vic had an ornate walnut bar completely stocked with every kind
of liquor. An etched mirror complimented the elegance of the bar. The mirror was framed in
carved walnut and proudly displayed Vic's company logo “De Voss Construction”. We
sat and enjoyed excellent bourbon as Vic pointed out some of the buildings his
company erected in Montgomery. After the drink, Vic took us to lunch.
I have to admit,
being just a country boy, anytime that I was with Scarpone I was never treated
without respect. I was hardly dressed for the downtown experience never the
less, you’d have thought I was Vic’s next big corporate client that day. Lunch
started off with a bottle of champagne and Happy New Year toasting. Scarpone
limited me to two glasses, reminding me that I had some driving yet to do.
To
be continued in Part II
