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There are signposts providing
information during a session of Blackjack. The information can signal
you when to abort a game or when to lean into it. I will share a few of
the concepts that I teach in my “Blackjack for Winners” seminar in this
article.
Numerous subtleties occur during a
Blackjack game. Your ability to recognize them and know the meaning of
their message will make a huge difference to your profits and losses.
The following should be enough to give you the idea of what to look for
and how you can benefit from the subtle messages.
My more successful Blackjack sessions
have been “box to wire”. That is to say, first out of the box and first
to cross the wire, winning all the way. I keep track of the profit or
loss at the end of each shuffle. When the game produces a profit of one
to three units at the end of a shuffle it is a good sign. It is good to
observe a small and steady profit as the game progresses. Staying even
is also acceptable. Playing in a game when you are never behind is a
very good signpost that you are at the right table at the right time. If
you are a card counter in a game like this, when you get the plus count
in your favor, you can really poke’em in the eye for above average
profit.
The flip side to winning steady is the
“dog fight”, playing back and forth in a game that chips away at your
betting stake. A “dog fight” may start-off with you losing several hands
in the beginning. Digging out of a hole is not the best way to start a
session. The average units won are around twelve to fourteen units. A
deficit of eight to ten units makes getting a profit of twelve to
fourteen units tough. Not to say that it is impossible to claw your way
back and make a profit. However, it is like any competition that you may
play. Would you want to spot the opponent eight to ten points and have
to play catch-up? Games that begin ugly usually end ugly.
You may recall that playing perfect
basic strategy reduces the house edge to almost even odds. Statically
this means, after one hundred hands or about one hour of play, you
should have most of your betting stake in place plus or minus a few
units. You are in a “dog fight”, if after an hour of play, you have but
fifty percent or less of the starting betting stake.
The first twenty minutes are the most
critical for a Blackjack player. Losing several hands in the early going
is a negative signpost. Losing two to four units at the end of each
shuffle is not going to get if for you. Recognize the cold game early
and get yourself out.
You do not win every hand in Blackjack.
“Gee Mike, what a tip.” Okay, here is what I mean. When you lose the
hands that you should lose and win the hands that you should win, not
only is it a positive signpost, it usually results in stacks of checks.
Pay special attention to the money-making hands verses the losing hands,
i.e. opportunities to make money. Are you receiving hands to double down
on and Blackjacks? Are you winning the doubled hands? This is valuable
information showing you how your game is shaping up.
Here are some examples:
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You double an eleven and draw and
Ace. An insult.
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You double an eleven and draw less
than seventeen. (This is different from the Ace insult).
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Your ten and nine doubles always fall
short of seventeen or are not enough to win. Just missed or even
losing the push by one.
If the dealer busts on my double hand,
I still like to see that I pulled the card anyway. I am always
encouraged to see the “picture card” on top of my two-card double. I
want to know that I did not have to rely on the dealer busting in order
to win. This is a strong indication of things going my way or not going
my way.
A few more subtle things to watch for.
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You have 18 and the dealer draws to
19. You have 19 and the dealer draws to 20. You play like a pro and
draw an 8 to go with your 6 & 7 against the dealers up-card of 6. The
dealer rolls over the hole card, a 5, and hits a 10 count card to push
your hand.
When you notice the events above
occurring in your game, perhaps it is not your night. This is when you
need to have the discipline to bail out of the game and bail out sooner
rather than later. Sure, I have played it to the bitter end thinking
that it is going to change with the next shuffle or next dealer. It
rarely does, and okay, if you do lose the whole bankroll, your loss is
limited to the one betting stake. I’ve done it plenty of times. The
smart play is to recognize the signposts for an up hill game and get out
early. You are dealt dirt all night; the writing is on the wall. Are you
going to read it? Far better to cut and run with what is left of your
betting stake and add it to the next game’s bankroll. It is never wrong
to walk.
Basic strategy developed from a
gazillion computer trials of random card combinations. It is without
doubt, the best way to play your two-card hand against the dealer’s up
card. Even so, the cards do not always act according to predictable
probability. Learn to recognize the prevailing metaphysical messages and
you can experience a significant difference in your game, in any game,
for that matter.
Recapping the signposts for Blackjack,
when you are winning the money-making hands and are not having to make
stiff hands look good, be encouraged with the table that you have
selected. When you are getting sand kicked in your face, it is probably
best to pick up your toys and choose to play at another time. It is all
about the energy, read it and reap.
Copyright © 2001 Michael Vernon
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