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What is
considered to be a reasonable profit from games of chance? The gaming
industry has done the best job of successfully brain washing the gambler
to embrace the “jackpot paradigm”. “Risk a few coins, have a few free
drinks and hit a million-dollar jackpot.” “Quit your day job and live
the ‘life of Riley’.” “The pot of gold is just a pull away.” “Someone is
going to win it.” “You could be next!” “Step up and lay your money
down.”
Slot machines,
long known as the king of jackpot games of chance, offer the promise of
millions. All you have to do is line up all the cherries across the
glass. At least two television network magazine programs have covered
this topic of how casinos can fix machines. The programs made it clear
that the slots are a player’s worst bet. Even with the casinos boasting
a 98% pay back, the casino is still getting along with 2% of a
“Gazillion” dollars, twenty-four seven. The City of Dreams stands as a
testament to this fact.
“I’m gonna
splain it to you Lucy”. When a casino orders slot machines, they inform
the manufacturer exactly how much they want the slots to pay out. The
manufacturer installs a program chip that is mathematically correct for
the prescribed payout requested by the purchasing casino. It is a simple
matter of probability. It is guaranteed that the average slot player
will never win a Jackpot of any sizable consequence. Casinos are not in
business of giving away money.
I can count on
one hand the number of times I have actually played a machine. If you
have not guessed by now, I’d rather watch paint dry than play a machine.
Sorry if I offend anyone that loves playing the one-arm bandits. Oops, I
dated myself. I believe now days all you have to do is push a button.
That reminds me, sidetrack for a history lesson.
I can recall
receiving a genuine silver dollar from my Aunt Sylvia when she returned
from a trip to Las Vegas. Back in those days the dollar slots were
played with Morgan Silver Dollars. I still have a few souvenirs. Those
were the days….
OK, back to my
point. How much profit is enough? The dream of striking it rich spread
to the table games. When this actually happened, I don’t know. Probably,
thirty-three seconds after the first casino opened.
The table games
all have varying odds against the player to insure the casino a
reasonable rate of return for hosting the game. This means you are not
expected to win at the table games either. They are a negative sum game.
However, the player has it embedded in their belief system that, not
only are they going to win, they are going to break the bank.
I have nothing
against a strong positive winning attitude. In fact, I insist on it. OK,
let’s be realistic. Table games simply are not jackpot games. I will
honor anyone’s story of a big win on a craps table or a run of hot hands
in a blackjack game and everyone knows James Bond makes good on the
roulette table! However, I must state politely, that the profits from a
table game will mostly be modest. Which is the point of this
article.
I doubt that
the average player knows or understands what to expect for a reasonable
profit from a table game. Consequently, and because of the lure of the
jackpot win, the unknowing player gets caught up in the casinos “mind
game” of “more-always more”. Pursuing the pot of gold, the player will
either play away their entire bankroll, chasing the jackpot, or after
having won a bit, and not knowing when to say when, the gambler plays
away the hard earned profit hoping for more. What usually follows is the
rest of the remaining bankroll, as the player tries to regain the lost
profit. Funny how a couple of hundred bucks profit looks good after
taking a loss of several hundred or more.
A little bit of
knowledge and a lot of discipline can make the difference between
red ink and black ink and having forlorn
memories of a game gone south.
OK, so what is
the rule for profit? How many units per hour is enough? What percentage
of increase above the original bankroll is acceptable? Do you play until
you start to lose? Do you play until you start to win? Do you play, win
or lose, until they offer you a free breakfast?
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There is no way to figure an hourly win rate.
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A session can last twenty minutes or two hours and
twenty minutes.
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The player should never get caught up playing for a
predetermined win.
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The only way to quit "a winner" is to quit while
you are winning.
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Never chase a loss.
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Gaming is adult entertainment. Play for enjoyment
first, or don't play at all.
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The lure of comps and "freebies" are come-on's.
There is no free lunch.
I have read a
few books and followed a few systems for both blackjack and dice. The
ones that I believe are most valid boast conservative units won, per
session played.
For the
blackjack player, six to ten units is considered a respectable return
from a single session. Even if you can count them down, who is to
say what the cards will do? Using my recommended betting stake of thirty
units for one session, the net profit would be between 20% to 30% of the
original betting stake.
If a player’s
unit bet is $10, the profit could be $60 to $100 per session, six to ten
units. Play three winning sessions and that will take care of the rent
for most hotels in Las Vegas for a day, plus a bit of walking around
money.
Craps is a bit
more difficult when it comes to “saying when”. This game can change
directions in a heartbeat. If the table gets a hot shooter or two, the
chips can come at you faster that you can pick them up. When the dice
turn to ice, hell can freeze over. You must know how to play during
these times, when to color up, and leave the game.
Craps tables
tend to run choppy most of the time. This means, either way you play,
you get your legs chopped off. If you find yourself up 20% to 30% of
your bankroll in profit, you are doing just fine. If you come close to
doubling your bankroll, 25 to 30 units, pat yourself on the back and
order a drink while the box man colors you up.
It is exciting
to be in a game when the chips stack up quick. I remember them because
they are so rare. I say, “get the profit while the getting is good and
get out!”
Having the
discipline, and an understanding of what a reasonable profit is, will
make a huge difference in how much of the casino’s dough you will take
home. It is a bit like driving a Ferrari. How fast, is too fast, and,
how fast do you really need to go? Being practical, consider all that
goes with speed: tickets, points, insurance rates and general risk to
life and limb. The prudent choice would be discipline, while driving a
speed machine. It is better to arrive in one piece, than to buck the
odds, just because you can.
Even though you
are having your way in a game, at some point it will change. Never lose
more than you reasonably expect to win. Always have a stop loss. Playing
4 Keeps, the stop loss is a maximum of thirty units, or one session’s
bankroll. Thirty units will provide the player with a fair shot to win
20% to 30% above the starting bankroll, and sometimes more. If things
don’t go your way, the risk is limited to the one bankroll and the loss
is stopped.
For some
individuals, winning a few hundred bucks is not enough. The solution for
this player can be found in their betting unit. If they want to win
more, they must bet more. The average number of units won, will be the
same no matter if you are betting $1 or $100. It is a simple matter of
increasing your unit bet. If you want to win $1000 per session playing
Blackjack, you will have to play $100 units. Playing $5 units is not
going to result in a $1000 dollar session. Total dollars won are
directly proportional to the unit value played.
It really comes
down to your comfort zone. What unit are you comfortable playing? Do you
have the required bankroll for playing at an increased unit? Do you have
the ability to walk with the profit, no matter what? Table games do not
have a jackpot bonus. If you find yourself in profit, do you have the
discipline to keep it? Can you be satisfied with a win or are you just
another member for the casino’s “Jack Pot Club” paradigm?
Copyright © 2000
Michael Vernon |
